DECISION-MAKING & ‘DISTANT’ FUTURES: An Irksome Equation (Part I)
Why is it hard to stick to good choices?
1. ßothersome ßeta
Many life-improving decisions involve annoying action today to bring benefits in the future. A simple way to model these decisions is:
Total Happiness = Happiness Today + ß(Happiness Tomorrow)
Your total happiness over time depends on today’s actions plus tomorrow’s outcomes. The irksome piece is ß. If ß’s value is a fraction (less than 1), then, suddenly, tomorrow becomes less important than today in decision-making. If ß was really close to 0, say 0.1, then I pretty much only think about today’s happiness! And now I’m doing ‘one last thing,’ rather than going to bed as resolved…
2. Bring the Future to Today
How to combat this? One solution is to change the payoff structure of Today. This is where a binding commitment contract comes into play, such as the app stickK, which donates money to a charity you hate if you don’t make your resolved choice. Or Pavlock, which literally gives you an electric shock from a wristband for a bad choice! Instead of making Happiness Today smaller via shock therapy, other approaches transfer Tomorrow to Today with rewards. Maybe I need a gold star sticker chart for bedtime…
3. Knowledge for a better Tomorrow.
Conversely, if Happiness Tomorrow got bigger, then even with irksome ß around, we’d still weigh it strongly in our decisions. If you thought “obesity epidemic” or “addiction” during this discussion, here’s where education may influence outcomes. A more accurate understanding of the real values of Happiness Tomorrow may re-align decision equations towards better long-term choices. Earned rewards for good choices accomplish the same future change idea. Excuse me, I’ve got some sleep research to read over my fancy morning tea…
Read the rest of the Decision-Making and Distant Futures series: ßest Defense is a Good Offense (Part II), Help from Health Policy (Part III)
A watch that shocks you to make better choices. Pretty cool. I use accountability apps that charge me money instead. Beeminder monitors whether I post on Substack and Forfeit (iOS) demands proof that I workout or do unpleasant tasks. I hope the market for these grows. They've made my life a lot better but they're still seen as fringe.