The Black Death and the rise of remote work?
Pandemic Minute: Something you have in common with the serfs (besides rats in your basement)?
Completely swamping COVID-19, the Black Death, or bubonic plague, is still the largest pandemic in history. From the 1340s to 1350s, the Plague wiped out an estimated third of Europe’s population.[1] Those that survived faced very different labor market conditions. In 1300, about 50 percent of the English population lived under serfdom, essentially a debt bondage arrangement which bound the serf, his family, and all future children to the overlord, who demanded most of the fruits of their labor, relegating serfs to subsistence farming . However, the drop in population vastly increased the power of laborers, helping them demand better conditions and break out of bondage contracts. After the Black Death, the number of serfs in England fell from 2 million to 1 million (34 percent) and by the 1500s numbered just in the few thousands.[2]
Although not for the same reasons, thankfully, post-COVID-19 labor markets have also seen an increase in the bargaining power of workers. Today, there are 1.97 million fewer Americans working than pre-pandemic.[3] Reasons include early retirements, increased savings, and reorganization of households for childcare, but the outcome shares some characteristics with the empowerment of the serfs. Immediately after the pandemic, U.S. workers saw higher raises and better bargaining power for remote work and flexible working arrangements. Congratulations on breaking out of bondage!
[1] Note that the plague hasn’t disappeared, remember not to hug your prairie dogs! Small outbreaks, often through fleas and animals, can be treated with modern antibiotics. Prairie dogs in National Parks are often vaccinated to prevent outbreaks.
[2] Mark Koyama has many interesting papers on economic impacts of this pandemic and other historical events. “The Economic Impact of the Black Death” Journal of Economic Literature, 2022 60(1), 132-178.
[3] Ferguson, Stephanie. “Understanding America’s Labor Shortage” U.S. Chamber of Commerce. June 09, 2023.